Brexit: the Uncivil War

Afternoon all

Hope everything is going well and you’re well and truly back into the swing of things. Before we get stuck in, check out yesterday evenings show, “Brexit: The Uncivil War.” It’s well worth a watch if you haven’t got any plans this evening. Don’t forget to take it with a pinch of salt(!), click here to have a peek.

GBP

Meaningful vote will happen  next Tuesday. However, the Telegraph reported that British and European officials were discussing the possibility of extending the formal exit process from the European Union amid fears a Brexit deal will not be approved by March 29/30th. Tomorrow Theresa May appears in her first PM’s questions of the year – much of the same we expect.

Finally just remember:

Britain remains in the EU = GBP Strength

If the deal is voted down this month/hard Brexit = 5+ percent of GBP weakness.

USD

Thin trading and medium sized international businesses sitting on the fence has led to a bit of USD weakness. We expect this to be short lived once a Brexit decision has been made this side of the pond. 1FX still thinks that there is a lot of good news to come from the US this year (putting Trump’s rants aside) and will be the safe haven currency for the year ahead.

EUR

Worrying signs of growth slowing. An unexpected fall in German industrial output for the third straight month helped to weaken the EUR. Albeit the drop was modest, it still cemented concerns here that the EUR will be in trouble from Q2-Q4 this year. Blame Trump? Potentially; German exporters are struggling with weaker global demand and trade disputes driven by Trump’s policies.

Vital week this week whether you’re an importer or exporter. Looking forward to hearing from you

Leave a Reply

Your e-mail address will not be published. Required fields are marked *